2009 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 1/6/2009 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2008
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change-5.1 %-2.5 %-6.5 % to -0.3 %-4.6 %

Highlights
Factory orders fell steeply in November, down 4.6 percent from a downwardly revised 6.0 percent decline in October (-5.1 percent previously reported). The decline was exaggerated by a price-related collapse in new orders for nondurable goods, specifically orders for energy products. Outside of nondurable goods, the decline in the month was a much less steep 1.5 percent compared to a stifling 8.5 percent drop in October.

Inventories are a big problem for businesses right now. Inventories at factories slipped only 0.3 percent in the month, that compared to the headline 4.6 percent decline in new orders and a 5.3 percent decline for November shipments. High inventories of unwanted goods point to further losses for jobs.

Focus continues to be on the auto sector which showed a slowing decline in new orders in November, down only 1 tenth vs. a 4.1 percent drop in October. Yesterday's data on vehicle sales for December were weak but a little less weak than November.

Though details of this report do indicate slowing rates of decline, last week's ISM manufacturing report signals steady erosion in December and well into this year. Next data on the manufacturing sector will be at mid-month with the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys.

Consensus Outlook
Factory orders in October plunged 5.1 percent, marking a third straight severe decline. Both durables and nondurables orders fell sharply. However, orders for nondurable goods were pulled lower by a mostly price-related fall in energy goods. Based on more recent durables data and further declines in oil prices, November is going to be another very negative month for overall orders. Durable goods orders fell 1.0 percent in November.

Factory orders Consensus Forecast for November 08: -2.5 percent
Range: -6.5 to -0.3 percent

Definition
Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2009 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/53/54/25/16/37/28/59/210/211/312/4
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
 


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