Econoday Report: Consumer Sentiment November 13, 2009

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Consumer Sentiment

Released on 11/13/2009 9:55:00 AM For November, 2009

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Sentiment Index - Level	70.6	71.0	69.0 to 72.0	66.0

Highlights
Consumer confidence is having a fainting spell. The Reuters/University of Michigan's reading on confidence, the consumer sentiment index, fell back a very steep 4.6 points to a very weak 66.0. Weakness is split between current conditions and the outlook. Inflation expectations remain subdued. Consumer confidence is declining even as manufacturing, housing and even retail report concrete improvement. The weakness is rooted in the still contracting jobs market. Equities and commodities dipped in immediate reaction to today's report. But note that movements in consumer confidence data don't always track movements in retail spending. The retail trade report for October, where the outlook is good, will be Monday's highlight.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index for October rose 1.2 points from mid-month to 70.6 but was still down from September’s level of 73.5. Weakness in October was primarily in the expectations index which fell to 68.6 from 73.5 in September. The current conditions index actually edged up to 73.7 in October from 73.4 the prior month.

Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Why Investors Care

Consumer sentiment is mainly affected by inflation and employment conditions. However, consumers are also impacted by current events such as bear & bull markets, geopolitical events such as war and terrorist attacks. Investors monitor consumer sentiment because it tends to have an impact on consumer spending over the long run (although not necessarily on a monthly basis.)

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/16 1/30 2/13 2/27 3/13 3/27 4/17 5/1 5/15 5/29 6/12 6/26 7/10 7/24 8/14

Released For: Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug

Released On: 8/28 9/11 9/25 10/16 10/30 11/13 11/25 12/11 12/23

Released For: Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec

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